This Week in Auto Racing September 10 - 12

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09/08/2010 - Richmond, VA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Sprint Cup Series' "Chase cut-off race" at Richmond International Raceway headlines this week in motorsports. The Nationwide Series also will be at Richmond, and Formula One concludes its "European schedule" for the season with the Italian Grand Prix.

NASCAR

Sprint Cup Series

Air Guard 400 - Richmond International Raceway - Richmond, VA

Heading into Saturday's regular season-ending race at Richmond International Raceway, 10 drivers have already secured a spot in the 12-man field for the championship Chase.

The last two Chase berths technically remain up for grabs, but Greg Biffle is almost assured he will make the playoffs. Biffle, currently 11th in points, is 161 points ahead of 13th-place Ryan Newman and needs only a 42nd-place finish or better, regardless of where Newman finishes, to lock down his position.

"We basically just have to start the race in Richmond to lock in our Chase spot, but I won't breathe easy until we finish that race," Biffle said.

Clint Bowyer, presently 12th in the standings, holds a comfortable 117-point advantage over Newman, but anything can happen, especially on the three- quarter-mile Richmond track.

"I need to make sure I don't screw up, first and foremost," Bowyer said. "In the end, you need to make sure you don't beat yourself. I've been in this situation before. Even though there is a lot of pressure, we need to go out there and do what we've been doing all year long."

If Bowyer finishes 28th or better, he will qualify for the Chase. Bowyer has performed well at Richmond during his Cup career, finishing no worse than 18th in nine races here.

"Richmond is definitely the place I feel the most comfortable laying it out on the line," Bowyer added. "It's one of my favorite race tracks where I've won at in the past, so it gives us an extra boost of confidence."

Bowyer's second and most recent Cup victory came in May 2008 at Richmond.

Three drivers -- Newman, Jamie McMurray and Mark Martin -- are outside the top-12 and have a very slim chance of making the Chase. Anyone within 161 points of 12th place mathematically remains in contention with one race to go before the Chase begins.

"Mathematically, we have a chance, and for an engineering guy, I guess that means something," Newman said. "But I can only try my hardest, and I did that [last Sunday at Atlanta]. We can't expect to make it all up in one shot."

Despite winning the Daytona 500 and the Brickyard 400 earlier this season, McMurray sits 128 points behind Bowyer in 14th place.

Martin is 147 points out in 15th. Martin, in his first season with Hendrick Motorsports last year, recorded five wins and finished second to champion and teammate Jimmie Johnson in points. The 51-year-old has yet to post a victory in 2010.

"These next 11 races are going to put me in a different position, and that might be interesting to me, because I can race each race with not so much to lose and everything to gain," Martin said.

When the 12-driver field for the Chase is determined, all qualifiers will have their point totals reset to 5,000. Each driver will then have 10 bonus points added for every race he won during the regular season.

Johnson, the four-time defending series champion, and Denny Hamlin have the most wins so far this season with five each. Kevin Harvick, the current points leader, and Kyle Busch are next in line with three victories apiece.

Hamlin won last year's fall race at Richmond. Hamlin, from nearby Chesterfield, VA, led 299 of 400 laps and held off Kurt Busch after a late- race restart to win a Cup race at his home track for the first time.

"I love coming back here, and I love the race track and seeing friends and family," Hamlin said. "I don't think that will ever wear off. Winning here was something I'll never forget, but I enjoy just being at that track."

Forty-eight teams are on the preliminary entry list for the Air Guard 400.

Mattias Ekstrom will drive the No.83 Red Bull Racing Toyota in place of Reed Sorenson. The Swedish driver made his NASCAR debut with Red Bull in June at Sonoma, CA, where he finished 21st. Ekstrom, Reed Sorenson and Casey Mears have been sharing driving duties in the No.83 car since Brian Vickers had to curtail his season in May due to treatment for blood clots.

Nationwide Series

Virginia 529 College Savings 250 - Richmond Int'l Raceway - Richmond, VA

Friday's Nationwide race at Richmond International Raceway will be the third of four races for the series' new car this year. It also will be the first event the car runs on a short track.

The car made its debut on July 1 at the 2.5-mile Daytona International Speedway and then ran again on August 14 at the two-mile Michigan International Speedway. The October 15 race at Charlotte, a 1.5-mile oval, will be last race for the car this season before it's introduced full-time in Nationwide next year.

Brad Keselowski, the current points leader, won last month at Michigan in a Dodge Challenger. Keselowski also won this year's spring race at Richmond.

"The real challenge for us going back to Richmond is making sure we run well with the new car," Keselowski said. "It obviously drives different. We won't be able to use the setup notes from the spring race. That's a little bit of a shame, because we were so good with the old car, but we've also been very strong and consistent in the new Dodge Challenger."

Carl Edwards is the defending winner of this race.

"It will be great to run the Nationwide [Ford] Mustang for the first time at a short track," Edwards said. "We get to test for a day, so we've got a really good test planned. We feel like we've got a good car built with all our latest updates."

NASCAR is allowing teams to test the car at Richmond in a full-day of practice on Thursday.

With nine races remaining, Keselowski holds a whopping 332-point lead over Edwards in the drivers' championship standings, but his No.22 Penske Racing Dodge team trails the No.18 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota team, with drivers Kyle Busch and Brad Coleman, by 83 points in the owners' title race.

Once again, Busch will try to claim his Nationwide record 11th win this season. Busch finished second to Jamie McMurray in last Saturday's race at Atlanta. He has three Nationwide victories at Richmond.

Sam Ard set the series record of 10 wins during the 1983 season, but Busch matched that record in 2008. Busch claimed his 10th win this season last month at Bristol.

Forty-four teams are on the preliminary entry list for the Virginia 529 College Savings 250.

FORMULA ONE

Italian Grand Prix - Autodromo Nazionale di Monza - Monza, Italy

Formula One will run its ninth and final race in Europe this season with this weekend's Italian Grand Prix in Monza, Italy. F1 will then compete in Singapore, Japan, South Korea and Brazil before wrapping the season on November 14 in Abu Dhabi.

With six races remaining on this year's calendar, Lewis Hamilton from McLaren holds just a three-point lead over Red Bull Racing's Mark Webber.

Last week in Belgium, Hamilton dealt with rainy conditions and overcame a slip off the track and into the gravel to win the Belgian Grand Prix and reassume the championship lead.

Hamilton started second, but immediately pulled ahead of polesitter Webber on the opening lap. He led from start to finish in the 44-lap race at the Spa- Francorchamps road course, as he managed to avoid any major incidents during the changing weather conditions for his third win of the year and the 14th of his F1 career.

"Our victory in Belgium showed that, as a team, we never give up, and that we will always bounce back from adversity, feeling stronger and more determined than before," Hamilton said.

Webber experienced a mechanical issue at the start of the race, which allowed Hamilton and several other drivers to pass him before heading into the first corner. He fell back as far as 10th, but rebounded nicely for a second-place finish.

Webber's teammate, Sebastian Vettel, currently trails Hamilton by 31 points. Two years ago, Vettel set and F1 record at Monza by becoming the youngest driver to win a race and the pole position. The German was 21 years old at the time.

"I have got two great memories from Monza -- my first F1 win and first F1 pole position -- so it's good to be going back," Vettel said. "The circuit is one of the most challenging of the season, due to the low downforce levels and high top speeds."

Hamilton's teammate, Jenson Button, suffered a major blow to his F1 title defense campaign in Belgium. Vettel made contact with Button and knocked him out of the race in the early going. He wound up finishing 22nd.

Button is now 35 points out of the lead.

The Italian GP is the home race for the once-dominant Ferrari team. Ferrari's base is located in nearby Maranello, Italy.

Fernando Alonso, in his first year with Ferrari, is looking forward to the Italian GP. Alonso won this race in 2007, when he drove for McLaren.

"I am here in Maranello getting ready for a special event, my first Italian Grand Prix as a Scuderia Ferrari Marlboro driver." Alonso said. "It is Ferrari's home race, and even if ours is a team that tackles every Grand Prix in the same way, giving it our best shot and always trying to win, there is no doubt that everyone in Maranello really wants to do well in front of our fans."

On Wednesday, F1's governing body, the International Automobile Federation (FIA), decided not to impose any further penalties on Ferrari for their controversial one-two finish in July's German Grand Prix.

Race stewards fined Ferrari $100,000 for imposing team orders and bringing the sport into disrepute after Felipe Massa moved aside to let teammate Alonso win the race. Alonso is the only Ferrari driver who remains in championship contention.

Following a special hearing in Paris, the FIA's World Motor Sport Council decided the fine should stand.

Ferrari currently is third in the constructors' point standings, trailing second-place McLaren and leader Red Bull Racing.

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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