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09/04/2010 - Minneapolis, MN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jim Thome hit two homers to pass Mark McGwire for ninth place on the all-time home run list, and the Minnesota Twins pummeled the Texas Rangers, 12-4, at Target Field.
Thome now has 584 career home runs, which is one more than the former Athletics and Cardinals slugger. The powerful lefty drove in four runs and reached 20 homers for the 16th time in the last 17 seasons.
Next up for Thome is Frank Robinson, who is eighth all-time with 586 homers.
Matt Tolbert added two triples and a career-high five RBI, while J.J. Hardy hit a two-run double for the Twins, winners in four of five. Carl Pavano (16-10) helped the Twins maintain their four-game lead over the White Sox in the AL Central after allowing three runs on eight hits in eight strong innings.
Chicago captured the first game against Boston in a doubleheader that continues later Saturday.
Ian Kinsler homered, while Julio Borbon hit a two-run double for the Rangers, who have lost 10 of 14 on the road but still hold a sizeable lead in the AL West. Colby Lewis (9-12) continued his struggles, allowing nine runs, eight hits and two walks in 3 2/3 frames. Lewis is now 0-7 in his last nine starts, not having won since July 16 at Boston.
Minnesota wasted no time jumping out to a big lead, scoring five times -- all with two outs -- in the opening inning. Denard Span worked a leadoff walk, and Orlando Hudson followed with a base hit to left. Two batters later, Thome worked a walk to load the bases with one out.
Delmon Young popped out, but the Twins' two-out attack took over. Hardy doubled in a pair of runs, and Jason Repko was hit by a pitch to re-load the bases. Tolbert plated all three runners with a triple to right for a 5-0 advantage.
Thome gave the Twins a 6-0 lead with his homer leading off the third.
In the fourth, Span and Michael Cuddyer both singled ahead of Thome, who sent another blast to left-center for his 20th of the season, which gave Minnesota a commanding nine-run lead.
Mitch Moreland's RBI single in the fifth put Texas on the board, and Borbon's two-run double in the sixth got the Rangers to within 9-3.
Tolbert continued his career day with a two-run triple in the seventh and came around to score on a wild pitch for a 12-3 advantage.
Kinsler's leadoff homer in the ninth accounted for the final margin.
Game Notes
Thome recorded his 46th multi-homer game and the second this season...The Rangers still lead the season series, 5-4...Pavano snapped a three-start losing streak...Josh Hamilton (back) played for Texas after leaving Friday's game and went 0-for-2 before being replaced by Borbon...The Twins have won six straight at home over Texas...Securing at least a series victory, Minnesota improved to 16-4-2 in series at home this season, including wins in eight of its last nine.
<< 25th-ranked West Virginia opens by blanking Coastal Carolina
Morgantown, WV (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Geno Smith completed 20-of-27 passes for a
career-high 216 yards and two touchdowns in his first collegiate start and
Noel Devine ran for 111 yards and a score to lead West Virginia to a 31-0
drubbin
<< Ducks dominate in opener against New Mexico
Eugene, OR (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kenjon Barner rushed for 146 yards and four
touchdowns on 17 carries as 11th-ranked Oregon used a powerful first
half to dismantle New Mexico, 72-0, in the first-ever meeting between the
schools
<< Hamlin edges Newman for Atlanta pole
Hampton, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Denny Hamlin earned his first pole of the
season by topping Ryan Newman in Saturday's qualifying for the Emory
Healthcare 500 at Atlanta Motor Speedway.
Hamlin turned in a lap of 187.380 m.p.
<< Texans release 21; officially sign RB Ward
Houston, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Houston Texans released 21 players, sent
three others to various reserve lists, and officially signed running back
Derrick Ward as part of their roster maneuvers on Saturday.
The Texans released quarterback
Longhorns begin post-McCoy era with win over Rice >>
Houston, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sophomore running back Tre' Newton rushed for a
career-high three touchdowns, as the fifth-ranked Texas Longhorns bounced back
from a slow start to defeat the Rice Owls, 34-17, in the season opener for
both sc
Wood, Reds handle Cardinals >>
St. Louis, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Travis Wood turned in seven solid innings and
hit his first career home run to lead Cincinnati in a 6-1 victory over rival
St. Louis in the middle test of a crucial three-game set at Busch Stadium.
Jonny Go
Eagles send Andrews to Seattle >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia Eagles reportedly sent
offensive lineman Stacy Andrews to Seattle on Saturday for an undisclosed
draft pick in 2011.
The move was reported on the team's website, although there
Siavii, Octavien among Cowboys' 20 cuts >>
Irving, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Defensive lineman Junior Siavii and linebacker
Steve Octavien were among the most recognizable names released by the Dallas
Cowboys on Saturday, as the team pared its roster to the 53-player maximum.
Siavii, a f
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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Sportsbook betting odds favor Europe in Ryder Cup
September 19, – Despite holding a decided edge in the all-time series, with 24 wins, 2 ties and 10 losses, Team USA is the underdog again heading into the Ryder Cup in Kidare, Ireland this weekend, according to MySportsbook.com. The Europeans have captured four of the past five editions, including their largest victory ever, an 18 ½ to 9 ½ thumping in Michigan in 2004. Current Ryder Cup betting odds favor the Europeans to continue their winning ways; they are a 4-5 bet to take the title, compared to 6-5 for the Americans.
Despite being knocked out in the first round of World Match play by Shaun Micheel, Tiger Woods is predicted to lead the US charge and be their highest point scorer for the week, with odds listed at 9-4 that he outpoints all other American players, including Jim Furyk, Phil Mickelson and Chris DiMarco to name a few. Team USA has four relatively unknown players on the roster but all four are 2007 tournament winners and have posted some of season’s best performances, each earning over $1.5 million on the PGA TOUR. They include Zach Johnson, Vaughan Taylor, JJ Henry and Brett Wetterich.
The experienced European squad includes the likes of Luke Donald, Sergio Garcia, Padraig Harrington, Jose Maria Olazabal and Darren Clarke, who’s emotions will be tested after the passing of his wife to a battle with cancer. Donald and Garcia are in particularly good form and each is a 5-1 bet to lead the European squad in the points race. Donald has proven he can go head to head with Woods at a major event after a run for the $1.2 million purse at the PGA Championship. Garcia’s Ryder Cup credentials prove he’s ready for battle too.
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Ryder Cup Odds| Europe Tie USA |
4-5 10-1 6-5 |
| Tiger Woods Jim Furyk Phil Mickelson Chris DiMarco David Toms Stewart Cink Chad Campbell Scott Verplank Zach Johnson Vaughan Taylor JJ Henry Brett Wetterich |
9-4 4-1 5-1 7-1 8-1 12-1 15-1 15-1 25-1 30-1 30-1 50-1 |
| Sergio Garcia Luke Donald Padraig Harrington Colin Montgomerie Darren Clarke David Howell Lee Westwood Paul Casey Henrik Stenson Jose Maria Olazabal Paul McGinley Robert Karlsson |
5-1 5-1 6-1 13-2 8-1 9-1 9-1 11-1 12-1 12-1 20-1 25-1 |
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